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Dollar maintains range volatility before Powell makes clear statement
Wonderful introduction:
Spring flowers will bloom! If you have ever experienced winter, then you will have spring! If you have dreams, then spring will definitely not be far away; if you are giving, then one day you will have flowers blooming in the garden.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Official Website]: The US dollar maintains range fluctuations before obtaining Powell's clear statement." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Wednesday (August 20) European session, the US dollar index (DXY) traded around 98.30, with little change in price, and traders are waiting for Fed Chairman Powell to speak at Jackson Hall's annual seminar later this week to find clues to the path to monetary policy.
The market pricing logic changes
The U.S. wholesale inflation data (i.e. PPI) released last week exceeded expectations, prompting traders to lower their bets on "deeper rate cuts."
According to the CME Federal Reserve Watch Tool (FedWatchTool), the current implicit probability of a rate cut in September in federal funds futures is 86%, and last week the market also believed that the September rate cut was a "confirm"; as of the end of the year, the market expected a cumulative rate cut of about 54 basis points.
In addition, the United States significantly increased imports at the beginning of the year to avoid the introduction of tariffs. Now, imports have dropped sharply xmniubi.compared to the background of full warehouses and unfavorable buyers’ prices. Turning the impact of trade balances into favoring the US dollar.
Analysts' views
Eng International Group (ING) analysts believe that the response of the New York dollar forex and interest rate market today reminds us that if the labor market shows signs of serious weakness, then the central bank has room to lower interest rates to neutral or even below neutral levels. That's why we're bearish about the 2026 dollar. Specifically, the US dollar index (DXY) may not be much moving today, and it is difficult to see it break through the 98.50/60 resistance level.
October Bank analysts pointed out that the market expects Powell to turn dovish, which also leaves room for disappointment because the market remains bearish on the dollar. About BowieWorries about the failure to cooperate (i.e., not giving clear or decisive views on policy tendencies) may lead to the dollar maintaining range volatility before gaining a clear statement from Powell.
DanskeBank's foreign exchange analyst said: "Powell will work hard to be quite balanced, but we may see a hawkish Powell on Friday. Some of the developments we see in inflation dynamics will make the Fed more cautious."
Survey policy events
The market focus has turned to the minutes of the Federal Open Market xmniubi.committee meeting in July released later today, and the Jackson Hall Global Central Bank Annual Meeting held on Friday.
Minutes of the meeting will reflect more of the view that two dissidents (Worler and Bowman) voted for the rate cut in July. However, given that the July employment report was released only a few days later, market changes may be limited.
Feder Chairman Powell's speech at the annual meeting will become the core of market attention. If Powell clearly "resisted" the market's expectations of interest rate cuts, it may further push up the US dollar; on the contrary, if the dovish signal is released, it may lead to a short-term weakening of the US dollar.
Technical Analysis
The US dollar index (DXY) is currently consolidating below the 98.65 resistance level, and the price is suppressed by the "downward trend line" extended from the high in late July. The index has found support around 97.90 and remains above the 50-term and 100-term index moving average (EMA) (the current two moving averages are around 98.20). This technical pattern indicates that the short-term market shows "bulking momentum".
Bond dollar believe that the dollar downward trend has been broken in the past month, with highs exceeding the June peak. For most of August, the dollar has been hovering around the 50-day moving average, mostly on it. This is a major change because from February to July, this downward line has been as resistance. The bulls also believe that the dollar's six-month decline and hit three-year lows have made it oversold.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 58, indicating that the US dollar index is "moderate and strong", but has not yet entered the overbought range.
From the technical perspective, if the US dollar index breaks through the 98.65 resistance level, the next target range may be 99.00-99.30; if it encounters resistance and falls around 98.65, it may pull back to 97.90, or even fall below the 97.50 support level.
At 18:08 Beijing time, the US dollar index was 98.2530/2740, a drop of 0.02%.
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