Senior Federal Reserve officials make dove calls again, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on November 21

Global market overview

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose or fell mixedly, with the Dow futures rising 0.44%, the S&P 500 futures rising 0.13%, and the Nasdaq futures falling 0.07%. Germany's DAX index fell by 0.60%, Britain's FTSE 100 index fell by 0.28%, France's CAC40 index fell by 0.03%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.81%.

2. Interpretation of market news

Senior Federal Reserve officials have made dovish calls again, and the window for short-term interest rate cuts remains open

(1) New York Fed President Williams said that the Federal Reserve may still implement further interest rate cuts in the "short term." ⑵ He emphasized the need to achieve the inflation target while avoiding excessive risks to the full employment target. ⑶Trump’s tariff remarks have pushed up price levels, but they are not expected to lead to sustained inflation. ⑷ Economic growth has shown a slowdown and the labor market is gradually cooling. ⑸The process of inflation falling is currently stalled, but it is expected to return to the long-term target of 2% by 2027. ⑹ The current monetary policy is still at a restrictive level, providing sufficient room for interest rate adjustments. ⑺As a permanent voting member of the FOMC, Williams’s statement provides key guidance for the December policy meeting. ⑻ These remarks strengthened the market’s expectations for the continuation of the easing cycle, although the progress of inflation is unsatisfactory.

Malaysia launches 55 million subsidy plan to strengthen mountain rice farming in Borneo

⑴The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security of Malaysia officially launched the 2025 mountain rice fertilizer and pesticide subsidy plan. ⑵The plan aims to strengthen theMountain rice cultivation ensures national food security. ⑶The government allocated 42 million ringgit for xmniubi.compound fertilizer and liquid urea subsidies, and 11.4 million ringgit for liquid herbicides. ⑷This year’s plan will be implemented starting from the October planting season and will cover approximately 44,000 hectares of mountain rice fields in Sabah and Sarawak. ⑸The Minister of Agriculture stated that approximately 44,000 hectares of farmland will benefit from this, directly supporting the agricultural production system of Borneo Island. ⑹ The national farmer organization is responsible for coordinating the supply and distribution of agricultural inputs and ensuring that subsidies are accurately delivered to eligible farmers. ⑺The plan is implemented through strategic cooperation, demonstrating the joint efforts of the government and agricultural organizations to promote food self-sufficiency. ⑻This move will help balance regional agricultural development and enhance the agricultural xmniubi.competitiveness and farmers’ income level in East Malaysia.

The U.S. Freeport LNG facility quickly recovered, and third-line production is back on track

⑴ The natural gas intake of the Texas Freeport LNG export facility increased on Friday, indicating that production activities are recovering rapidly. ⑵ London Stock Exchange Group data shows that one of the three liquefaction production lines has been put back into operation after being shut down on Thursday. ⑶As an important LNG export base in the United States, the operation of this facility directly affects the global natural gas supply pattern. ⑷ The rapid recovery of production lines has alleviated market concerns about supply stability. Previous outages had triggered short-term price fluctuations. ⑸Freeport facilities have always been the focus of market attention since the accident in 2022, and their operational stability has been put to the test. ⑹ The United States’ LNG export capacity continues to improve, which has a profound impact on the energy security strategies of Europe and Asia. ⑺ As the winter demand season approaches, North American natural gas infrastructure load becomes a key determinant of price. ⑻ This rapid recovery demonstrates the resilience of the U.S. energy infrastructure and provides stable expectations for global natural gas trade.

Canada received US$50 billion in investment from the UAE, and the energy AI field became the focus

⑴Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and the President of the UAE signed the "Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement" to establish a new investment framework. ⑵The UAE has pledged to invest up to US$50 billion in Canada's strategic industries such as energy, artificial intelligence, logistics, and mining. ⑶The agreement sets out clear rules for investors and aims to unleash bilateral investment potential by stabilizing the business environment. ⑷The UAE's direct investment stock in Canada will be US$8.8 billion in 2024, while Canada's investment in the UAE will be only US$242 million. ⑸The agreement will allow Canadian xmniubi.companies to gain confidence in overseas expansion in the fields of engineering, construction, clean technology and artificial intelligence. ⑹ The Carney government plans to double exports outside the United States in the next ten years and attract 1 trillion Canadian dollars in new investment within five years. ⑺The Prime Minister met with leaders of sovereign wealth funds and other business executives in Abu Dhabi to promote the implementation of strategic cooperation. ⑻This cooperation marks that Canada is systematically adjusting its trade structure and reducing its dependence on the U.S. market.

Behind Amazon’s massive layoffs of 10,000 people, engineers became the biggest victims

⑴ Amazon announced last month that it would lay off more than 14,000 people, a record high in the xmniubi.company’s 31-year history, affecting core businesses such as cloud xmniubi.computing and smart devices. ⑵Engineering and technical personnel have become the hardest hit by layoffs, with over 100,000 layoffs in four states including New York.Nearly 40% of the 4,700 eliminated positions are for engineers. ⑶The data xmniubi.comes from the "Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notice" submitted by Amazon to various states, reflecting the cruel reality of structural adjustment. ⑷ This layoff joins this year’s wave of layoffs among technology xmniubi.companies, with 231 xmniubi.companies laying off nearly 113,000 people in total. ⑸The wave of layoffs occurred against the background of surge in industry cash reserves and soaring profits, highlighting the strategic shift in the post-epidemic era. ⑹ Amazon claims that it is adjusting resources to the field of AI, and its human resources director emphasizes the importance of innovation. ⑺The xmniubi.company faces the realistic dilemma of realizing its vow of “innovation acceleration” despite a significant reduction in engineers. ⑻The technology industry is undergoing a profound transformation from scale expansion to efficiency priority, and the talent structure is facing reshaping.

British energy bill relief is imminent, with a fiscal bailout cost of 4.3 billion pounds

⑴ Goldman Sachs economists predict that the British budget next week will introduce measures to significantly reduce household energy bills. ⑵ Relevant measures are expected to cost the government approximately 4.3 billion pounds in financial funds in the short term. ⑶Policies that may be announced include cutting the VAT rate on household energy bills. ⑷The budget will also consider removing environmental taxes and related social policy costs from household bills. ⑸These measures are designed to directly alleviate the pressure on living costs and respond to the public’s strong dissatisfaction with high energy prices. ⑹ The scale of fiscal expenditure shows that the government is giving priority to people's livelihood issues, even if it faces severe budget constraints. ⑺ Energy subsidy policy and inflation control goals form a delicate balance, and we need to be alert to secondary inflation risks. ⑻ This move may provide more space for the Bank of England’s subsequent monetary policy and support a soft landing of the economy.

The collapse of oil prices will be the savior, and the turmoil in the bond market is just an episode

⑴ U.S. bond yields fell across the board, with the 10-year term falling below the 50-day moving average at the critical level of 4.083%, and the market was shrouded in uncertainty. ⑵The current fluctuation is a technical adjustment rather than a trend reversal, because the collapse of oil prices will become the ultimate weapon to curb inflation. ⑶ If a peace agreement in Ukraine is reached, crude oil will enter a new range of US$30-60, with a minimum of US$55 support. ⑷ Leveraged funds have not yet shorted on a large scale, and once they enter the market, they may push the low oil price to US$20 per barrel. ⑸The collapse of oil prices will drive inflation back down, and the fall in mortgage interest rates below 4% will activate the most sluggish housing market in the post-war period. ⑹ The recovery of housing activity alone can promote GDP growth by 2%, creating conditions for 3% growth and controlled inflation. ⑺The 28-point Ukraine peace plan caught Europe off guard and involved sensitive provisions such as territorial concessions and a ban on NATO troops. ⑻ Strategically, focus on the 10-year yield rate breaking through the range, and seek short-selling opportunities when it is close to 4%. The trading range is expected to be 4.05%-4.10%.

European debt has become a safe haven, and concerns about technology stock bubbles have triggered capital migration

⑴ Euro zone bond yields fell from a six-week high on Friday, and the sell-off in risky assets drove funds to re-flow into the fixed income market. ⑵ German 10-year government bond yields fell 3 basis points to 2.69%, having hit a six-week high of 2.741% yesterday. ⑶ Italy’s 10-year government bond yield fell 1.6 basis points to 3.45%, reflecting the spread of risk aversion to peripheral countries. ⑷Investors turn to German bonds when risk sentiment deteriorates, valuing their extremely low default risk and high liquidity advantages. ⑸Despite Nvidia’s impressive performance, concerns about the valuation of technology stocks continue, and the boost in market sentiment is only short-lived. ⑹ The euro zone's service industry expanded at the fastest pace in a year and a half, but the manufacturing industry returned to contraction due to weak demand. ⑺In the face of global uncertainty, the euro zone economy has shown resilience, reinforcing the European Central Bank's expectation of staying on hold. ⑻ Germany's two-year yield, which is more sensitive to interest rates, fell 2.8 basis points to 1.99%, once hitting a two-week low.

The Trump administration announced a new move for oil and gas development, which many states strongly opposed

The Trump administration announced a new offshore oil and gas development plan on the 20th, delineating dozens of lease areas in the coastal waters of Alaska, California and Florida, significantly expanding the offshore oil and gas exploitation area in the United States. The plan was strongly opposed by local governments and environmental groups. California Governor Newsom criticized Trump for "selling out the coastline to his big oil financiers" and affecting local tourism and people's livelihood. This "idiot plan" is doomed to fail.

Rumors of turmoil in the White House cabinet are rife, with immigration and the energy sector becoming the focus

⑴ US media reported that the White House is preparing for possible cabinet personnel changes in January next year, which may shake up the current stable governing team. ⑵ Trump’s current cabinet team is relatively stable, and his staff intends to avoid repeating the image of frequent personnel changes during his first term. ⑶ The Department of Homeland Security has become a key department that may be adjusted. This department is responsible for implementing the campaign promise of large-scale deportation of illegal immigrants. ⑷The Department of Energy is also facing the possibility of personnel changes, and the relationship between Secretary Chris Wright and the White House has deteriorated significantly in recent months. ⑸The White House press secretary directly denied the relevant reports and accused the media of relying on creating dramatic events to survive. ⑹ The timing of personnel changes is aimed at the first anniversary of Trump's return to power, showing the impact of the political cycle on the administrative team. ⑺The effectiveness of immigration policy implementation may become a key indicator in evaluating whether Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem should go or not. ⑻If the rumors are true, this adjustment will involve two key policy areas: domestic security and energy strategy.

Japan’s 21 trillion yen stimulus is trapped in a paradox, and anti-inflation measures may push up inflation

⑴The Japanese cabinet approved a 21.3 trillion yen stimulus plan, which is a quarter larger than last year’s supplementary budget and equivalent to 3.5% of economic output. ⑵ More than half of the funds are used for price relief measures, including energy subsidies, cash payments to children and families, and the elimination of gasoline taxes. ⑶The Cabinet Office estimates that these measures will reduce overall inflation by 0.7 percentage points from February to April next year, and core consumer prices will increase by 3% in October. ⑷The issuance of government bonds required to finance additional expenditures may impact the yen, which has depreciated 6.7% against the U.S. dollar since Takahashi was elected. ⑸ Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki warned of "one-way violent fluctuations" in the exchange rate market, hinting at the possibility of foreign exchange intervention. ⑹ The cheaper yen pushes up import costs, which may xmniubi.completely offset the effect of the proposed subsidies, especially for those who rely on overseas oil.Utility xmniubi.companies with natural gas resources. ⑺ Higher inflation will strengthen the Bank of Japan’s rationale for raising interest rates, which is contrary to Takahashi’s original intention of delaying interest rate hikes to lower government financing costs. ⑻The prime minister's first signature policy may exacerbate the inflation he promises to curb and further weaken the Liberal Democratic Party's already declining support rating.

3. Trends of major currency pairs before the New York market opens

EUR/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, EUR/USD fell and is now at 1.1520, a decrease of 0.07%. Before the New York session, the price of (EURUSD) declined in recent day trading as the resistance at 1.1540 remained stable, against the backdrop of the dominance of the main downward trend and the short-term trading along minor trend lines, while the Relative Strength Index began to develop negative divergence and thus negative signals after reaching overbought levels that were exaggerated relative to the price action.

GBP/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD has risen and is now at 1.3088, an increase of 0.12%. Before the New York market opened, the (GBPUSD) price rose slightly on the last trading day because it traded below the EMA50 and continued to be under negative pressure due to the negative technical pattern formed on a short-term basis (rising wedge pattern). In addition, after reaching the overbought level, a negative signal appeared on the relative strength indicator and a negative divergence formed on the relative strength indicator.

Spot gold: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now trading at 4066.70, a decrease of 0.26%. Pre-market in New York, (gold) prices have been volatile in the latest trading session as it gained some bullish momentum that helped it edge up slightly by leaning on the support of a minor bullish trendline on a short-term basis, facing negative pressure from trading below the EMA50, and negative signals emerging on the relative strength indicator.

Spot silver: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now trading at 49.599, a decrease of 1.97%. Prices (silver) deepened their losses in the last intraday trade before the New York session, as negative pressure from trading below the EMA50 continued, with a short-term break of the bullish trendline exacerbating the negative pressure, especially with the emergence of negative signals on the relative strength indicator, despite reaching oversold levels.

Crude oil market: As of 21:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil prices fell.58.430, a decrease of 0.95%. Before the New York session, the price of (crude oil) fell in last intraday trading, falling below the key support level of $58.00, despite reaching oversold levels, as the main bearish trend prevailed in the short term, coupled with continued downward pressure from prices trading below the 50-day moving average, and negative signals from the relative strength indicator.

4. Institutional view

Capital Economics: Weak UK retail data may be affected by delayed consumption on Black Friday

⑴ Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said that although UK retail sales fell by 1.1% month-on-month in October, the data is not as pessimistic as it appears on the surface. ⑵Retail sales have increased for four consecutive months, and retailers reported that some consumers were delaying consumption in anticipation of Black Friday promotions. ⑶This means that November sales data may rebound. ⑷ However, Gregory reminded that consumer sentiment is still sluggish, and the consumer confidence index fell further to -19 in November from -17 in October. ⑸This reflects the public’s lack of optimism about the current economic prospects. ⑹ The job market continues to be weak, inflation remains high, and tax increases are expected to be announced in the government budget next week. ⑺The tax hikes in the budget may curb consumer spending during the holidays.

JPMorgan Chase: Warning that if MSTR is removed from the index, it may trigger a capital outflow of US$2.8 billion

⑴ JPMorgan Chase warns that if MSTR is removed from mainstream indexes such as the MSCI US Index or the Nasdaq 100 Index, it may trigger a capital outflow of up to US$2.8 billion. ⑵ The superimposed passive fund sell-off may further amplify the impact. Currently, the passive funds linked to MicroStrategies have reached nearly 9 billion US dollars. ⑶MSCI plans to decide before January 15, 2026 whether to exclude xmniubi.companies with digital asset holdings exceeding 50% of total assets from the index. ⑷The yield rate of Microstrategy's financing instruments has increased, highlighting the potential systemic risks brought about by the decline in market confidence. ⑸MSCI has extended the consultation period on whether "digital asset treasury xmniubi.companies" should be included in the global investable market index to December 31, 2025. ⑹ Some market participants pointed out in a statement on October 10 that such xmniubi.companies are more similar to investment funds. ⑺MSCI accordingly proposes to exclude xmniubi.companies whose digital assets account for more than 50% of total assets, and may introduce additional standards such as "self-definition" and "financing purpose". ⑻The final decision will be announced on January 15, 2026, and will take effect during the review in February of the same year.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Senior Federal Reserve officials are making dove noises again, short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on November 21". It is carefully xmniubi.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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