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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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CATEGORIES
market analysis
21 trillion yen dropped! Should Japan save its economy or detonate a bond market bomb?
Wonderful introduction:
Spring flowers will bloom! If you've ever experienced winter, you've experienced spring! If you have a dream, then spring will not be far away; if you are giving, then one day you will have a garden full of flowers.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: 21 trillion yen dropped! Will Japan save the economy or detonate a bond market bomb?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
The Japanese government recently finalized an economic stimulus plan totaling 21.3 trillion yen, equivalent to 3.5% of the country's annual GDP. It is the largest fiscal expansion since 2022. This fund is mainly invested in three major directions: curbing inflation, strengthening defense and diplomatic capabilities, and promoting sustainable economic growth.
About 11.7 trillion yen will be used to alleviate household energy burdens and strengthen child care support, while the rest will be allocated to local economic revitalization, social security and other fields. Since up to 17.7 trillion yen needs to be spent from the national general budget, the government is very likely to initiate a supplementary budget process and issue an additional 7 trillion yen of Japanese government bonds (JGB) to fill the gap.
The final version of this plan is larger than initially envisaged because the ruling coalition is currently in the minority and has to make xmniubi.compromises to win support from the opposition parties. Measures that were not originally on the agenda, such as abolishing the gasoline tax and raising the tax-free income threshold, have also been included. Although this approach of “exchanging votes for expansion” increases the likelihood of the bill passing, it also raises market concerns about loosening fiscal discipline. Analysts pointed out that such large-scale debt financing may weaken long-term fiscal sustainability, especially in the context of an aging population and weak tax growth.
Nonetheless, the plan does have the ability to boost the economy in the short term. In particular, subsidies for household electricity and gas bills are expected to lower the overall consumer price index by an average of 0.7 percentage points in the first half of 2026, effectively alleviating people's cost of living pressure. At the same time, cash handouts and local revitalization projects are expected to boost real GDP growth by 1.4 percentage points annually. byAs a result, the market has raised Japan's economic growth forecast for 2026 from the original 0.7% to 1.4%. With private consumption yet to fully recover, public spending is becoming a key force supporting the economy.
Inflation data is split: the surface is cooling, but the inside is still hot
The impact of this stimulus plan on inflation shows obvious "differences in appearance and interior" characteristics. On the one hand, energy subsidies will significantly lower the "overall inflation" including food and energy, keeping it below 2% throughout 2026, achieving a return to the nominal inflation target. But on the other hand, excluding these two more volatile categories, "core-core inflation" - a key indicator reflecting endogenous price pressures - is still likely to remain above 2% for an extended period. This shows that the current driving force for price increases xmniubi.comes more from wage growth, rising service costs and imbalances in service supply and demand, rather than external input factors.
This means that although policy intervention can temporarily suppress inflation readings, it is difficult to eradicate the structural thrust behind it. Even if the government uses subsidies to make people feel that prices will no longer soar, the cost pressure on enterprises and the pricing power of the service industry are still increasing. Because of this, analysts have adjusted their forecasts for future price trends accordingly: headline inflation is expected to be 2.0% in 2026 (previously 2.3%), while core-core inflation has been revised down slightly to 2.6% (previously 2.7%). This change reflects that continued expansion on the demand side is still exerting upward pressure on the price system.
It is worth noting that this operation method of "pressure gauge without xmniubi.compaction" may cause side effects. If the market believes that the central bank is relaxing its vigilance simply because of temporary measures, it will question its determination to control inflation. In addition, when subsidies end, suppressed energy prices may rebound again, leading to a "rebound effect" in inflation. Therefore, how to strike a balance between short-term stability maintenance and long-term price control will become a difficult problem that the Bank of Japan must face.
Treasury bond yields are under pressure, and monetary policy is in a dilemma
The positive effects of fiscal expansion are not without costs. As Japanese government bond issuance is expected to rise, market concerns about increasing debt supply have rapidly increased. Currently, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield has climbed to around 1.8%, reflecting investors' reassessment of the future interest rate path and fiscal health. If the pace of subsequent bond issuance accelerates and there is a lack of strong fundamental support, the government bond market may face further selling pressure.
Based on current forecasts, the 10-year JGB yield is expected to rise to 1.90% in the first half of 2026 and hit the key psychological level of 2.0% in the second half. This level is regarded as a reasonable range that matches the 2% inflation target, and also marks a substantial step forward for Japan to xmniubi.completely get rid of deflation. However, an excessively rapid rise in yields may also trigger a tightening of financial conditions, affecting the willingness of xmniubi.companies and households to borrow, thereby dragging down the economic recovery process.
In this context, the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy normalization process faces greater challenges. Analysts generally believe that the Bank of Japan will stillBy the end of 2026, interest rates will be raised by a total of 50 basis points and the ultra-loose policy will be gradually withdrawn. But the specific timetable is highly uncertain. On the one hand, if inflation continues to be higher than the target and the economy recovers steadily, the central bank may start to raise interest rates as early as December; on the other hand, considering the huge demand for fiscal financing, monetary policy may be forced to slow down to avoid violent fluctuations in the government bond market. Especially before the outcome of spring labor negotiations is clear, the central bank may be inclined to wait and see, and the first interest rate hike may be postponed to the first quarter of the following year.
The Japanese yen exchange rate is approaching a critical level, and the risk of intervention is rising
As fiscal stimulus pushes up debt expectations and reduces the attractiveness of the local currency, the pressure for the Japanese yen to depreciate has intensified again. The U.S. dollar is currently close to the 158 mark against the yen, only one step away from the 2025 high of 158.871. Once it breaks through and approaches the key psychological level of 160, the possibility of Japanese authorities implementing foreign exchange intervention will increase significantly.
Tokyo CPI and industrial production data will be released next week. These indicators will become an important basis for judging inflation trends and economic momentum. If the data shows that core prices continue to rise and output expands steadily, it may increase the market's confidence in the Bank of Japan's early action and temporarily support the yen; conversely, if the data is weak, it will further weaken expectations for interest rate hikes and intensify downward pressure on the exchange rate.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: 21 trillion yen dropped! Will Japan save the economy or detonate a bond market bomb?" It was carefully xmniubi.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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