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Is the yen's decline approaching a critical point? Insights into the self-denial paradox of Japan’s fiscal stimulus

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market xmniubi.commentary]: The decline of the yen is approaching the critical point? A look at the self-denial paradox of Japan's fiscal stimulus." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On Friday (November 21), despite the slight intraday correction of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, the exchange rate still maintained a range of fluctuations at a high level in the past 34 years. The 21.3 trillion yen fiscal stimulus package announced by the Japanese government on Friday is becoming a key variable affecting exchange rate trends.

The double-edged sword effect of fiscal stimulus

The supplementary budget equivalent to 3.5% of GDP approved by the Japanese cabinet is more than a quarter larger than last year, making it the largest fiscal stimulus since the epidemic. More than half of the funds will be used for price relief measures, including energy subsidies, cash subsidies for children and families, the elimination of gasoline taxes and raising the personal tax threshold. The Cabinet Office estimates that these measures will reduce the overall inflation rate by 0.7 percentage points between February and April next year.

However, market analysis shows that this large-scale fiscal expansion may have the opposite effect than expected. Well-known institutional columnists noted that government bond issuance needed to finance additional spending could weigh on the yen. Since the ruling party elected Takaichi Sanae as leader, the yen has fallen 6.7% against the US dollar. Fiscal stimulus, while boosting demand, may put double pressure on the yen through increased bond issuance and a deterioration in the current account.

Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki said on Friday that he was "alert to the recent one-way violent fluctuations in the currency market." This statement was interpreted by the market as a subtle signal that the authorities may intervene in the currency market again. The pressure of the depreciation of the yen to push up import costs has attracted great attention from policymakers.

Technical aspects show that the bullish pattern has not changed

From the perspective of technical indicators, the US dollar against the yen is still in a solid upward channel. On the 4-hour chart, the exchange rate is running stably atAbove all key moving averages: the 20-period moving average at 156.577 provides near-term support, and the 50-period moving average at 155.403, the 100-period moving average at 154.592, and the 200-period moving average at 153.241 form a multi-layered defense network. The current moving average system is arranged in a long position, indicating that the medium-term trend is still good.

The MACD indicator (parameters 26, 12, 9) shows that the DIFF value is 0.572, the DEA value is 0.636, and the MACD histogram is -0.129. Although the MACD line is still above the zero axis, there are signs of slight top divergence, suggesting that short-term upward momentum has weakened. This explains the technical reasons for the 0.37% intraday correction.

In terms of key support and resistance areas, the recent important resistance area focuses on the psychological level of 158.00, which is close to the 1990 high point. Downward support first focuses on the 20-period moving average of 156.577. If it falls below, further attention will be given to the 155.40-155.00 range. This area brings together the 50-period moving average and the upper limit of the early consolidation platform. Stronger support is located near 154.60, corresponding to the 100-period moving average.

Policy Dilemma and Market Expectations

Currently Japanese policymakers are facing a difficult balance. Large-scale fiscal stimulus is intended to relieve household spending pressure, but it may push up inflation through two paths: first, the depreciation of the yen exacerbates imported inflation, and second, the expansion of aggregate demand drives up prices. This situation may instead strengthen the Bank of Japan's case for raising interest rates, and Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae originally hoped to control government financing costs by delaying interest rate increases.

Analysts pointed out that if fiscal stimulus eventually leads to inflation continuing to be higher than the policy target, the Bank of Japan will have to speed up the normalization of monetary policy, thereby narrowing the interest rate gap with the United States and providing support for the yen. This result will run counter to the Prime Minister's original intention of delaying the interest rate hike, creating a dilemma of policy self-denial.

Geopolitical factors are also having an impact. There are signs that cash flow from Chinese tourists to Japan may tighten, which will weaken the yen's support in tourism service revenue. At the same time, global risk aversion has fluctuated due to Trump's tariff remarks and the situation between Russia and Ukraine, and the US dollar's status as a traditional safe haven currency continues to attract capital inflows.

Trend Outlook and Intraday Focus

Looking forward to the market outlook, the trend of the U.S. dollar against the yen will depend on the game of three factors: the actual inflationary effect of Japan’s fiscal policy, the determination of foreign exchange authorities to intervene, and changes in U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials. While the technical picture remains bullish, fundamental factors are becoming more xmniubi.complex.

The following points need to be paid close attention to during the session: first, the performance of the exchange rate in the 156.50-157.00 range, which is both an area of recent intensive transactions and the key to judging short-term momentum; second, the intensity of Japanese official verbal intervention on the exchange rate, and any statement beyond the norm may cause violent fluctuations; third, the impact of U.S. economic data on the Fed's policy expectations, which will directly affect the direction of the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential.

Considering the uncertainty of the current policy environment, investors should remain vigilant. While the long-term trend has yet to signal a reversal, short-term volatility could rise significantly. The market will seek a new balance between the deflationary effects of fiscal stimulus and the inflationary effects of currency depreciation and bond issuance. This process will inevitably be accompanied by high-frequency price fluctuations.

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