U.S. bond yields are high, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on November 24

Global market overview

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures all rose, with the Dow futures rising 0.15%, the S&P 500 futures rising 0.33%, and the Nasdaq futures rising 0.61%. Germany's DAX index rose 0.49%, France's CAC40 index rose 0.02%, Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 0.26%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index rose 0.18%.

2. Interpretation of market news

High U.S. bond yields highlight the global interest rate spread pattern

⑴ The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield reached 4.062%, which is significantly higher than major economies such as Germany and Japan. The interest rate spread to Germany reached 135.4 basis points, indicating that the U.S. interest rate policy is relatively tight. ⑵ In the short-term bond market, the U.S. 2-year yield is as high as 3.539%, the interest rate difference with Germany is 150.8 basis points, and the interest rate difference with Japan has expanded to 258 basis points, highlighting the advantage of the United States in short-term interest rates. ⑶ British bond yields are among the highest in the world, with the 10-year bond yield reaching 4.555% and the 2-year bond yield reaching 3.783%, both higher than those in the United States during the same period, reflecting the market’s expectations for British inflation and interest rate policies. ⑷ Australia’s yield curve is relatively steep, with the 10-year yield of 4.454% higher than the United States, but the 2-year yield of 3.688% is only slightly higher than the United States, indicating that its long-term inflation expectations are strong. ⑸ Japan’s yield rate is at the lowest level in the world, with the 10-year term only 1.788% and the 2-year term only 0.959%. This is in sharp contrast to the United States and reflects the divergence of the two countries’ monetary policies. ⑹ There are obvious differences within the Eurozone. Germany, as the benchmark, has the lowest yield, while Italy, France and other southern European countries have higher risk premiums and interest rate spreads.Maintained at 50-75 basis points. ⑺The current global bond market pattern shows that funds still tend to flow to U.S. dollar assets with higher yields, but we need to be alert to the risk of capital flow reversal caused by narrowing interest rate spreads.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller: Paving the way for an interest rate cut in December

⑴ Federal Reserve Governor Waller clearly stated his support for an interest rate cut in December. The core basis of his decision-making is labor market conditions, pointing out that most private sector data show a weak job market. ⑵ Waller believes that inflation is not the current major problem. The inflation rate after excluding tariff factors is about 2.4% or 2.5%, and he expects that inflation will begin to decline. ⑶ Regarding the September employment data, Waller was cautious, believing that there may be a risk of downward revision, and pointed out that the concentration of data is not a good sign, and there is no sign that xmniubi.companies are about to set off a hiring boom. ⑷ Waller emphasized that January next year will be full of challenges, when a large amount of data will be released to help judge whether another interest rate cut is needed, and the Fed will need to evaluate it meeting by meeting. ⑸ Waller revealed that he had a very smooth meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent about 10 days ago, which shows that there is good xmniubi.communication between monetary policy and fiscal policy. ⑹ If future data shows a rebound in the economy, Waller said the Fed can take a more cautious approach, which leaves room for policy flexibility.

Oil prices drag down! Oman's fiscal revenue fell by 8% in the first nine months

⑴ Oman's national fiscal revenue fell to 8.48 billion Omani riyals in the first nine months of 2025, a decrease of 8% from 9.2 billion riyals in the same period in 2024, indicating financial pressure. ⑵ The decline in revenue was mainly dragged down by the decrease in oil revenue. Oil revenue in the first nine months was only 4.71 billion rials, a sharp drop of 13% from 5.43 billion rials in the same period last year. ⑶ While revenue decreased, Oman’s public expenditure increased by 2% to 8.91 billion riyals, further widening the gap between revenue and expenditure. ⑷Financial data shows that Oman’s economy is still highly dependent on oil and gas revenue, and fluctuations in international oil prices have a decisive impact on its financial situation. ⑸Investors need to pay attention to the output policy of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and changes in global demand. These factors will indirectly affect the financial health of oil-producing countries such as Oman through oil prices.

U.S. stocks are waiting for interest rate cuts to signal the tug of war between technology bubbles and consumer resilience

⑴ The three major U.S. stock index futures fluctuated slightly on Monday, with the Dow futures rising slightly by 0.05%, the S&P 500 futures rising by 0.33%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.56%. Market trading was relatively flat. ⑵The probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 75%, a significant increase from 42% a week ago. However, there are still differences among decision-makers and the policy path is still unclear. ⑶ U.S. stocks have fluctuated lower this month, with major stock indexes likely to post their largest monthly declines since March. Concerns about artificial intelligence valuation bubbles and the data vacuum caused by government shutdowns are the main sources of pressure. ⑷The holiday shopping season is about to begin, and consumer resilience has become the focus. The National Retail Federation predicts sales will exceed US$1 trillion for the first time, and Walmart has raised its annual forecast. ⑸Despite Nvidia’s strong forecast, technology stocksValuation pressure continues, but Deutsche Bank, a major Wall Street brokerage, is optimistic that the S&P 500 index will reach 8,000 points in 2026, showing the divergence of institutional views. ⑹ Future focus will include retail sales and PPI data in September, as well as financial reports from consumer xmniubi.companies such as Dick's Sporting Goods and Best Buy, which will verify the actual health of the economy. ⑺The medical sector was boosted by favorable policies, with Bristol-Myers Squibb rising 3.8%. There were reports that Trump's medical plan may extend subsidies, providing support for related stocks.

The latest survey shows that U.S. economic growth is expected to accelerate slightly to 2% next year

⑴ The latest survey from the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) shows that U.S. economic growth is expected to accelerate slightly to 2% next year, but stubborn inflation and slowing employment will coexist, forcing the Federal Reserve to cautiously cut interest rates. ⑵ The survey pointed out that personal consumption and corporate investment will become the main driving forces of economic growth. However, the Trump administration's new tariff policy is expected to directly drag down economic growth by at least 0.25 percentage points and is regarded by the interviewed experts as the biggest downside risk. At the same time, stricter immigration enforcement will also inhibit economic vitality. ⑶In terms of inflation, although the inflation rate is expected to drop slightly to 2.9% at the end of this year, it will only drop slightly to 2.6% next year, which will remain high. Among them, tariffs are expected to contribute 0.25 to 0.75 percentage points to inflation. ⑷The job market is expected to cool down significantly, with only about 64,000 new jobs added every month, far below recent levels. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in early 2026 and remain there throughout the year. Against this background, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, but will only cut interest rates by another 50 basis points next year. The pace will slow down significantly and monetary policy will tend to be neutral.

The European Council approved the EU’s 2026 annual budget

On November 24, local time, the European Council officially approved the EU’s 2026 annual budget. An announcement issued by the European Council that day stated that the budget was the result of negotiations with the European Parliament. The budget will be submitted to the European Parliament for final approval, and the European Parliament is expected to adopt the budget on November 26. The announcement stated that the total budget xmniubi.commitment is 192.8 billion euros. This budget sets aside 715.7 million euros as a buffer to deal with unforeseen circumstances, within the spending ceiling of the current EU multi-year fiscal framework xmniubi.commitments.

Brazilian inflation expectations have slightly decreased and the high interest rate environment may continue

⑴ Brazilian economists have slightly adjusted the IPCA inflation forecast for 2025 from 4.46% to 4.45%, and also lowered the 2026 forecast from 4.20% to 4.18%, indicating that inflationary pressure has eased slightly. ⑵ The market expects Brazil’s benchmark interest rate to remain at a high of 15.00% at the end of 2025, while the interest rate forecast for the end of 2026 is lowered from 12.25% to 12.00%, indicating that the high interest rate environment may last longer than expected. ⑶ Economic growth is expected to remain stable, with GDP growth expected to remain at 2.16% in 2025 and 1.78% in 2026, reflecting the pace of economic expansion.Cutting is relatively mild. ⑷Exchange rate expectations show that the real will remain at 5.40 against the US dollar by the end of 2025, indicating that currency stability is recognized by the market. ⑸ The moderate reduction in inflation expectations provides the central bank with more flexible policy space, but interest rate expectations show that fighting inflation is still the current top priority, and investors need to pay attention to the difference between actual inflation data and expectations.

The yield on 10-year British government bonds fell to 4.53%, and the market is paying attention to the budget announcement

⑴ The yield on 10-year British government bonds fell to 4.53%, and investors are waiting for the announcement of the budget on November 26. ⑵ Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves predicts that tens of billions of pounds will need to be raised to meet fiscal rules. ⑶The Office for Budget Responsibility will lower its growth and productivity forecasts, resulting in a fiscal gap of 20-30 billion pounds. ⑷Recent data show that the UK is facing severe challenges: borrowing during non-epidemic periods has reached record highs. ⑸Business activities have stagnated, retail sales have declined, and household confidence has weakened. ⑹ Inflation slowed to 3.6% in October, strengthening expectations that the Bank of England will restart interest rate cuts. ⑺The market expects an 80% probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December, pushing government bond yields lower before the budget.

The Cold War on German Bonds Sounds the Alarm and the Hidden Mysteries of Capital Flows

⑴ Germany sold 2.9 billion euros of 12-month short-term government bonds on Tuesday, with the average bid yield reaching 1.966%, significantly higher than the previous 1.937%. ⑵The treasury bond bidding coverage ratio this time is only 1.5 times, which is a significant decline from the previous 1.7 times, reflecting that the market enthusiasm for subscription has cooled down. (3) Rising yields and falling bid coverage ratios usually mean weakening demand for government bonds, which is often related to changes in the market's risk assessment of Eurozone assets or adjustments to expectations for future interest rate trends. ⑷In the current context of uncertainty about the policies of major global central banks, subtle changes in demand for German debt are worthy of vigilance, which may indicate that funds in the field of low-risk assets are being reallocated. ⑸Investors should focus on the Eurozone inflation data and the European Central Bank's policy signals in the future. These factors will directly affect the attractiveness of short-term interest rate products.

The European banking system has ample liquidity, and the scale of overnight deposits remains high

⑴ The latest data from the European Central Bank showed that the scale of overnight deposit facility usage of xmniubi.commercial banks was 2.50 trillion euros, a slight decrease from the 2.51 trillion euros the day before. ⑵The usage of overnight loan facilities increased from 5 million euros to 7.09 million euros. Although the absolute value is low, the month-on-month increase is significant. ⑶ xmniubi.commercial banks’ current account holdings with the central bank reached 166.4 billion euros, an increase from 163.4 billion euros the day before. ⑷Data shows that the banking system has generally sufficient liquidity, and financial institutions prefer to deposit funds with the central bank rather than market lending. ⑸ The slight increase in the use of overnight loans deserves attention. If it continues to rise, it may indicate that short-term financing needs are accumulating.

The European Investment Bank injected 50 million euros, and Italian xmniubi.companies received strong support for their expansion

⑴ Italian listed xmniubi.company GPI signed a 50 million euro investmentYuan financing agreement, the fund provider is the European Investment Bank. ⑵ This financing will be used exclusively to support various investment deployments in the group’s 2025-2028 business plan. ⑶The selection of the European Investment Bank shows its recognition of GPI’s business development prospects and strategic planning. ⑷The injection of long-term low-cost funds will significantly improve corporate cash flow and provide key support for the expansion plan in the next four years. ⑸ The market can pay attention to the specific investment direction of this fund. Its layout in the field of digitalization or green transformation may bring long-term value enhancement.

The euro zone default risk premium has fallen, and interest rate cut expectations have become market-dominated

⑴ The cost of credit default protection in the euro zone has declined, mainly due to the positive impact of the market's renewed expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. ⑵ New York Fed President Williams’ statement that “there is room for interest rate cuts in the short term” is a key factor driving the change in market expectations. ⑶ Specific data shows that the iTraxxEuropeCrossover index tracking euro high-yield credit default swaps fell 6 basis points to 265 basis points. ⑷ This change reflects the improvement in risk appetite and the easing of investor concerns about corporate defaults. ⑸ If the Fed's interest rate cut expectations continue to strengthen, credit spreads may be further xmniubi.compressed, but attention needs to be paid to whether the European Central Bank's policy stance changes simultaneously.

Iraq’s crude oil exports contracted suddenly, adding another variable on the supply side

⑴ Iraq’s December Kirkuk crude oil export plan shows that 9 cargoes will be loaded from Ceyhan Port in Turkey, a decrease from November. ⑵ Calculated in terms of daily supply, the export scale in December was 219,000 barrels per day, a month-on-month decrease of 12%, and the supply contraction was relatively significant. ⑶ This change may reflect the continued impact of geopolitical or operational factors on crude oil exports from northern Iraq, which has experienced multiple disruptions in the past. ⑷Although the absolute quantity is limited, in the context of OPEC+ maintaining production cuts, supply contraction from any major oil-producing country is likely to exacerbate market tensions. ⑸Traders need to pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and pipeline operations. Any further supply disruptions may provide an upward risk premium for oil prices.

3. Trends of major currency pairs before the New York market opens

EUR/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, EUR/USD rose and is now at 1.1542, an increase of 0.23%. Before the New York market opens, (EURUSD) price has risen in recent intraday trading, supported by positive signals from the relative strength indicator, once again testing the key resistance level of 1.1540. Meanwhile, negative pressure continues as its price remains below the EMA50, which reduces the likelihood of a sustainable recovery in the short term, especially if the price trades along a slight downward trendline in the short term.

GBP/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD has risen and is now at 1.3116, an increase of0.11%. Before the New York market opened, (GBPUSD) price fell in the last intraday trading, after testing the key resistance level of 1.3095, which was negatively affected by the short-term technical pattern, which was presented by the rising wedge pattern; in addition, the continued downward pressure brought by the price below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) also strengthened the dominance of the main decline in the short term, and the price ran along the trend line.

Spot gold: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot gold has risen and is currently trading at 4080.49, an increase of 0.36%. Prices (gold) rose in the last trading session before the New York session, taking advantage of the dynamic support represented by its exchange along a minor bullish trend line on a short-term basis. Nonetheless, the price remains under negative pressure as it trades below the EMA50, accompanied by the emergence of negative signals on the relative strength indicator.

Spot silver: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot silver has risen, now trading at 50.212, an increase of 0.51%. Pre-market in New York, (silver) prices cautiously advanced on the last trading day, once again testing the $50.25 resistance, continuing to xmniubi.come under negative pressure as it traded below the EMA50, with negative overlapping signals on the relative strength indicator, reaching exaggerated overbought levels xmniubi.compared to the price action, influenced by the previous break of the secondary bullish trend line on a short-term basis.

Crude oil market: As of 21:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now trading at 58.090, an increase of 0.05%. Pre-market in New York, (crude oil) prices fell in recent intraday trade as negative pressure persisted as it traded below the EMA50 while holding steady at the key resistance level of $58.00. Against the backdrop of a major downtrend prevailing and prices moving along the trendline, its RSI has released oversold conditions.

4. Institutional view

Barclays: Powell may lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next month. The internal camp is clearly divided

1. The latest report from Barclays Research pointed out that although there are obvious differences within the Federal Reserve on next month’s interest rate decision, Chairman Powell is likely to push the Federal Open Market xmniubi.committee to make an interest rate cut decision.

2. According to the analysis of recent official statements, three camps have formed within the Federal Reserve: Governors Milan, Bowman and Waller tend to support interest rate cuts; Regional Fed Chairman MussallTom and Schmid advocated keeping interest rates unchanged; while trustees Barr, Jefferson, Goolsby and Collins, although they did not express their positions clearly, were more inclined to maintain the status quo.

3. Barclays said in the report: "Before considering Powell's position, there may be six members of the xmniubi.committee who are inclined to maintain interest rates and five who support cutting interest rates." However, the bank emphasized that Powell as chairman will ultimately dominate the decision-making process because the threshold for other governors to publicly oppose his position is high. This analysis shows that Powell's stance may be a key factor in whether to cut interest rates next month.

Agency: Public unrest in the Philippines may further drag down economic activity

1. Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging market economist at Capital Economics, pointed out that continued public unrest in the Philippines is posing a further threat to the country's economy. Previously, the government suspended public infrastructure projects due to corruption allegations, which has had an impact on economic activity. Domestic corruption scandals in the Philippines have continued to escalate recently. Two cabinet ministers have resigned due to allegations that their departments were involved in corruption in flood control projects, making the political situation more xmniubi.complicated.

2. Tuvey warned that under the influence of this series of adverse factors, the Philippine peso faces new downward risks. This vulnerability stems largely from the country's large current account deficit and its overreliance on more volatile forms of foreign capital. Under multiple pressures, the economic prospects of the Philippines are not optimistic.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: High U.S. bond yields, short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on November 24". It is carefully xmniubi.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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