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The dollar fell below the 100 mark, has Powell shown his trump card?
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The US dollar fell below the 100 mark, has Powell shown his trump card?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On November 26, in early trading in Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 99.84. On Tuesday, as lower-than-expected retail sales data strengthened market expectations for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the U.S. dollar index fell back from its highs, falling below the 100 mark, and finally closed down 0.389% at 99.81; U.S. bond yields continued their decline, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield falling below 4% for the first time since late October, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Fed's policy interest rate, closed at 3.463%. As the prospect of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve was offset by the easing of geopolitical risks, spot gold fluctuated in a range, setting a new high since November 14, and finally closed down 0.1% at US$4,130.84 per ounce; spot silver finally closed up 0.24% at US$51.48 per ounce. International crude oil returned to decline as signs of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks boosted expectations that Russian oil supplies will remain stable. WTI crude oil once fell 3%, approaching the US$57 mark, hitting a new low in more than a month. It finally closed down 1.36%, at US$58.09/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 1.31%, at US$61.97/barrel.
Analysis of major currency trends
U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 99.84. The U.S. dollar is currently under pressure, with economic data failing to provide effective support to bulls. Weak employment data, sluggish consumer confidence and tepid inflation all point to the possibility of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Until the market narrative shifts or buyers regain 100.395, the path of least resistance for the U.S. Dollar Index remains technical to the downside, with the Yuan Index trying to stabilizeBelow the 50-day moving average at 99.83. If this attempt is successful, the USD Index will move towards the next level of resistance, which is located in the 98.85 to 99.00 range.



Gold and crude oil market trend analysis
1) Gold market trend analysis
In the Asian market on Wednesday, gold hovered around 4143.35. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December continue to rise, with the probability now rising to 85%. As the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday approaches, overall market trading is restricted. Of course, weaker-than-expected retail sales data, stubborn inflationary pressures, and dovish xmniubi.comments from Federal Reserve officials are quietly driving potential upside for gold prices. This trading day needs to pay attention to news related to the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. In addition, investors should pay close attention to changes in market expectations for the December Federal Reserve meeting and the dynamics of potential chairman candidates. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to the breakthrough of the 4100-4160 area.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis
On Wednesday in the Asian market, crude oil was trading around 57.98. Oil prices continued their decline on Tuesday as Ukraine signaled that it might accept the peace agreement framework proposed by the United States, sparking concerns about the end of the Russia-Ukraine war and the subsequent return of Russian oil supplies to the market. The subsequent progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement will become a core variable in the crude oil market, and the timing of finalizing and signing the details of the agreement may trigger violent fluctuations in oil prices. At the same time, the subsequent impact of the U.S. government shutdown, the release of more economic data, and changes in the labor market will continue to affect demand expectations. On the supply side, OPEC+'s adjustment to its production reduction policy, changes in output from non-OPEC oil-producing countries, and the specific pace of Russian oil's return to the market are all clues that need to be tracked.

Foreign exchange market trading reminder on November 26, 2025
21:30 Number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week to November 22
21:30 Monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in September
22:45 United States in November Chicago PMI
23:00 Annualized total number of new home sales in the United States in September
23:30 EIA crude oil inventories in the United States for the week to November 21
23:30 EIA Cushing crude oil inventories for the week from November 21 in the United States
23:30 EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory from the United States for the week to November 21
01:00 EIA natural gas inventory for the week from the United States to November 21 the next day
Total number of oil drilling rigs from the United States for the week to November 28 at 02:00 the next day
At 03:00 on the same day, the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book of Economic Conditions
The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The US dollar fell below the 100 mark, has Powell shown his trump card?" It was carefully xmniubi.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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