Focusing on Jackson Hall Annual Meeting, Trump increases pressure on the Federal Reserve, gold prices approach 3350 mark

Basic news

On Thursday (August 21, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,348/ounce. Gold prices rose on Wednesday, the US dollar weakened, and market participants are preparing for the upcoming Jackson Hall annual meeting. Meanwhile, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that only two policymakers seemed to support the rate cut at the July meeting; U.S. crude oil traded around $62.90 per barrel, and oil prices rose on Wednesday as U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week, and investors were waiting for the next progress in Ukraine's conflict talks, and Russian crude oil is still under sanctions.

Focus on this day

The Ministry of xmniubi.commerce held its first regular press conference in August and the Jackson Hall annual meeting will be held from August 21 to 23, with the theme of "Labor Market Transformation: Demographics, Productivity and Macroeconomic Policy".

Stock Market

U.S. Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell on Wednesday as investors sold off tech stocks to move to lower-valuation industries, while they were waiting for Fed officials to speak at this week's Jackson Hall seminar.

Tech stocks have previously played an important role in the rebound after Wall Street's April sale, but have recently begun to pull back. The S&P 500 Technology Index narrowed its decline in early trading and ended up closing down 0.8%.

Seven out of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 rose, with leading gains including energy, healthcare and consumer essentials.

Bryantvan Cronkhite, senior portfolio manager at Allspring, said: "From a broader perspective, it's more like a oncesector rotation, not real selling. The valuation of technology stocks appears to be high against the current context of inflation in spending. Secondly, I think there are many sectors in the market with very attractive valuations, but they have been widely ignored. ”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.04% to 44,938.31 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.24% to 6,395.78 points; the Nasdaq fell 0.67% to 21,172.86 points.

Trading on U.S. exchanges were relatively light, with 15.5 billion shares, while the average volume in the first 20 trading days was 17.7 billion shares.

Analysts listed other factors behind the sell-off in tech stocks, referring to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's xmniubi.comments about artificial intelligence stocks being "in a bubble" last week, and a study by MIT that showed many tech xmniubi.companies It is difficult to convert artificial intelligence into real profits.

Some investors are also worried about government interference in the private sector. The Trump administration is studying stakes in chip xmniubi.companies such as Intel after a few weeks of an unprecedented revenue share agreement with Nvidia and AMD.

Nvidia fell 0.1%, AMD fell 0.8%, while Intel and Micron fell about 7% to 4%, respectively. People are looking forward to Nvidia's quarterly earnings report released on August 27, hoping to find clues to artificial intelligence demand. Apple and Alphabet were also under pressure, closing down about 2% and 1.1%, respectively.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting showed that although two policymakers objected , but almost all other policymakers believe it is appropriate to keep the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50%.

Feder Chairman Powell is expected to speak at the annual Fed meeting in Jackson Hall, Wyoming on Friday. His remarks will be closely watched for policy signals. Investors have digested the possibility of a 25 basis point cut in September, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). Meanwhile, investors are also paying attention to Trump’s request for Fed Director Cook to resign.

The financial reports of large retailers seen as barometer of U.S. consumer health will also be released this week as people worry that tariffs can It could push up prices, which hit market sentiment. Gold prices rose on Wednesday, the dollar weakened, and market participants were preparing for the upcoming Jackson Hall seminar. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve minutes showed that only two policymakers seemed to support a rate cut at the July meeting. Spot gold rose 0.9% to $3,344.37 per ounce, earlier hitting its lowest level since August 1. U.S. gold futures closed up 0.9% to $3,388.50.

Feder minutes showed that regulators opposed last month’s opposition to keep interest rates unchanged, Bowman and Director WallerIt seems to be the only two decision makers who advocate interest rate cuts. Weaker-than-expected employment data released within 48 hours of the meeting seemed to confirm their concerns.

Independent metals trader TaiWong said, "Traders are free from the impact they believe the news is outdated and the meeting was held before the shocking employment report is released."

The market focus turned to Fed Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hall's annual economic seminar on Friday.

Traders currently expect a 83% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch tool.

Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for the mid-2026 gold price to reach $4,000 per ounce, citing strong structural central bank demand, the Federal Reserve's easing policy support for inflows of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and a 30% chance of a U.S. recession in 12 months.

At the same time, U.S. President Trump called on Fed Director Cook to resign, increasing his pressure on the Fed. Cook is suspected of mortgage fraud.

Spot silver rose 1.1% to $37.78 per ounce, platinum rose 2.1% to $1333.43, and palladium remained stable at $1115.15.

Oil market

Oil prices rose on Wednesday as U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week, and investors were waiting for the next progress in Ukraine's war talks, with Russian crude still under sanctions.

Brent crude oil futures rose 1.6% to settle at $66.84 per barrel. U.S. crude oil futures rose 1.4% to settle at $63.21.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 6 million barrels in the week ending August 15. Analysts surveyed by Reuters predict a drop of 1.8 million barrels.

Angain Capital partner John Kilduff said: "Our crude oil inventories have dropped sharply. We are seeing a rebound in exports. Coupled with strong refining demand, this report is really good."

U.S. President Trump acknowledged that Russian President Putin may not want to reach an agreement. He has ruled out the possibility of sending ground forces to Ukraine, but said the United States may provide air support as part of a deal to end Russia's war in Ukraine.

Russia said on Wednesday that trying to solve Ukraine's security problem without Moscow's participation is "no way out", a warning to the West, which is busy working to ensure the future security of Kiev.

Russian embassy in New Delhi official said on Wednesday that Russia is expected to continue supplying oil to India despite the U.S. warning.

The Russian Ministry of Defense said on Wednesday that the Russian army has advanced to the eastern part of the Dnepropetrovsk region of Ukraine, occupying the village of Novoheorhiivka near the Donetsk region.

AustraliaDaniel Hynes, senior xmniubi.commodity strategist at the bank, said in a note: "Now it seems that the possibility of a quick resolution of the conflict with Russia is unlikely.

Foreign market

The dollar fell on Wednesday after U.S. President Trump called on Fed Director Cook to resign, but the dollar shranked its decline after records of the Fed's latest meeting showed only two policymakers supported a rate cut last month.

Trump further stepped up his efforts to influence the Fed by accusation of one of his political allies of Cook of holding mortgages in Michigan and Georgia. Trump also told aides that he was considering trying to fire Cook, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday. "The market has voted with a wallet, showing that it doesn't like the president's interference in the Fed," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn GlobalForex. "Trump has been criticizing Fed Chairman Powell for being slow to cut interest rates, and traders expect him to appoint a more dovish successor after Powell's term ends in May.

But Powell may remain on the Fed's board, which will limit the number of directors appointed by Trump and may hinder his plans to form a more dovish policy-making team.

Chandler said this was just a disguise attempt to control the Fed, because if Powell did not resign from his post as director after the end of his term as chairman, the only thing Trump could appoint is his temporary seat in Koogler, whom Milan temporarily replaced.

Earlier this month, Trump said he would nominate Milan, chairman of the Economic Advisory Board, to fill the vacant seat left by Fed Director Coogler after his unexpected resignation, with a term of only a few months left.

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes from July 29 to 30 show that in the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged last month, although two policymakers expressed opposition, no other officials seemed to support the rate cut at the meeting. The US dollar has since left the daily low.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, fell 0.13% in the day to 98.20; the euro rose 0.09% to 1.1657. The yen rose 0.32% against the US dollar to 147.2 yen.

When Powell spoke at the Jackson Hall meeting this week, whether he would hit back on market expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut at the September 16-17 meeting, becoming the focus of traders' attention.

Powell has said he is reluctant to cut interest rates due to expectations that Trump's tariff policy will intensify inflation this summer.

The July consumer price inflation data showed that tariffs had limited impact, but producer price inflation rates were higher than expected, easing expectations for how many rate cuts could be cut this year.

At present, federal funds rate futures traders believe that the probability of a rate cut next month is 83%, and are expected to cut interest rates by 54 basis points by the end of the year.

The New York dollar fell 1 against the US dollar.12%, to $0.5826, a four-month low after the central bank lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to a three-year low of 3.00%, and said it would cut further in the xmniubi.coming months as policymakers warn of adverse factors in domestic and global economic growth.

The Swedish Krona rose 0.1% to 9.59 after the Swedish central bank maintained its key interest rate at 2.00% as expected.

The pound fell 0.3% to $1.3449 after the UK inflation hit its highest level in 18 months in July, but this is not expected to change the Bank of England's policy. Chris Turner, head of research at Dutch International, said: "The Bank of England is more concerned about food inflation, and the data released today has not changed much in this regard."

International News

Trump allies called for an investigation into Fed Director Cook on mortgage transactions, suggesting that he may violate the criminal law

Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) director and Trump's staunch ally Bill Poulter urged Attorney General Pam Bundy to investigate two mortgage transactions by Fed Director Cook. Pulte wrote to Bondy and Justice Department official Ed Martin on August 15, saying Cook "forged bank documents and property records to obtain more favorable loan conditions, which may constitute mortgage fraud under the criminal law." He said Cook had purchased a property and applied for a loan in Ann Arbor, Michigan and promised to use it as his primary residence for at least one year, but two weeks later, another mortgage in Georgia, also stating that he would use it as his primary residence. Pulte also cites four criminal law provisions, suggesting Bundy investigate whether there are potential crimes. No charges have been filed yet, and it is unclear whether Bundy will investigate.

In case the Minister approves the takeover of Gaza City plan, Germany and France oppose it

According to multiple Israeli media reports on the 20th, Israeli Defense Minister Katz approved the Israeli military's xmniubi.combat plan to take over Gaza City on the 19th. In response, Germany and France expressed clear opposition to this, calling for a lasting ceasefire and seeking a political solution. According to a poll released by Reuters on the 20th, most Americans support the international xmniubi.community's recognition of the Palestinian state and believe that Israel's excessive use of force in the Palestinian Gaza Strip.

OpenAI's monthly revenue exceeded US$1 billion, and its xmniubi.computing power was seriously insufficient, and it urgently needed the "Star Gate"

According to OpenAI's chief financial officer Sarah Friar, OpenAI achieved a monthly revenue exceeding US$1 billion for the first time in July this year. Friar said that due to the release of GPT-5 and the launch of a new subscription service, there is still insufficient xmniubi.computing power to face huge pressure. Therefore, this is also the main reason why OpenAI and Oracle, SoftBank and others invested $500 billion to build the world's largest xmniubi.computing power platform, "Stargate".

"Separation" lawmakers return to Texas to pass bills on redrawing congressional districts

Local time in AugustOn the 20th, the Texas House of Representatives passed a bill on redrawing congressional districts. The chart of district divisions was drawn at the request of U.S. President Trump, aiming to add five seats to the Republican Party in next year's midterm elections. In mid-July this year, U.S. President Trump urged Texas Republicans to pass a congressional district re-placing, so that the Republicans will gain five more seats in the midterm elections next year. As the Republicans overwhelmingly control the Texas state legislature, in the absence of other "blocking tools", more than 50 Democratic state representatives collectively left Texas for other places in early August, making it impossible for the state House of Representatives to reach the quorum required for legislation. State Speaker Burrows failed to convene legislative meetings many times.

Federal Mickey Bottle: Fed Meeting Minutes Strengthened Some Known Information

"Federal Mickey Bottle" Nick Timiraos: Fed Meeting Minutes usually do not reveal too much new content, but they strengthen the information that has been disclosed: First, according to Powell's press conference, the overall sentiment of the xmniubi.committee at the July meeting was hawkish (at least xmniubi.compared with the market first); second, the dependence of data and forecasts emerged, that is, after the employment report was released on August 1, more officials showed an open attitude towards the rate cut in September.

Argentina liquidity tightens, President Mile clashes with top banks

New liquidity measures aimed at curbing the peso sell-off have exacerbated tensions between Argentina President Mile and the country's banks. The banking industry had basically met his policy goals before, but now its profitability is under threat. Bankers believe that the new regulations require institutions to meet reserve requirements on a daily basis rather than on a monthly basis, which is inefficient and costly. Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that major financial institutions are preparing a document containing operational reform proposals submitted to the central bank.

Medvedev: Russia does not accept NATO's so-called "peacekeeping force" stationed in Ukraine

On the 20th local time, Medvedev, Vice Chairman of the Russian Federation Security Conference, said that Russia does not accept any NATO troops under the name of so-called "peacekeeping force" stationed in Ukraine.

Trump has purchased more than $100 million in bonds since taking office

Information disclosed this week shows that US President Trump has purchased more than $100 million in corporate, state and municipal bonds since taking office in January. The billionaire Republican president has made more than 600 financial investments since January 21, the day after his second term took office, a form released online on Tuesday showed.

Lagarde: US tariff policy drags down the economic growth of the euro zone

European Central Bank President Lagarde said at the World Economic Forum International Business Council event on the 20th that due to the impact of US tariff policies, the economic growth rate of the euro zone in the third quarter is expected to slow down. Lagarde said the current global economy is full of challenges. As of now, although the world economy has maintained growth and the eurozone economy has shown some resilience, this is mainly affected by the distorted effect of high tariff policies on economic activities. Imported in the first quarter of this yearIn order to avoid the impact of tariff hikes, businessmen increased inventory before the policy came into effect, and international trade and investment activities objectively promoted economic growth.

Domestic News

Hong Kong Stock Exchange Chen Yiting: The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will study the 24-hour trading mechanism

At the 2025 interim performance meeting of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Chen Yiting, CEO of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Group, said: "The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has always adhered to the principle of strategic investment in maintaining global xmniubi.competitiveness. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will not be stingy in capital expenditure. We continue to increase investment in data platform optimization and trading settlement system upgrades." At the scene, Chen Yiting answered the hotly discussed question of extending trading time in the market. "As for the issue of extending trading hours, we noticed that Nasdaq plans to implement a 24-hour trading mechanism for five days and a week in the second half of 2026. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will adhere to the principle of prudent gradual progress, and conduct research on the basis of fully learning from the experience of international peers and in xmniubi.combination with the actual situation of the local market. This process needs to be gradually improved after the trading system is upgraded, the risk management system is improved and the regulatory framework is mature." She said. Chen Yiting said that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is actively discussing with market participants on shortening the settlement cycle of the spot market. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's technical system will be able to support the T+1 settlement cycle by the end of this year, but when the market implements T+1 settlement, it is necessary to solicit opinions from multiple market participants.

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