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The "waiting and watching" within the Fed still has the upper hand, and the US index rose first and then fell
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The "wait and watch" within the Federal Reserve still has the upper hand, and the US index will rise first and then fall." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On August 21, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.24. On Wednesday, the US dollar index rose first and then fell, and once rose to an intraday high of 98.42 during the session, and then erased all intraday gains and turned to a decline. However, after the meeting minutes showed that only two Fed decision makers supported the rate cut in September, the US index narrowed its decline and finally closed down 0.05% to 98.20; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.299%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.752%. Spot gold continued to rise, approaching the $3350 mark for a time, up nearly $40 lower than the day, and finally closed up 0.98% to close at $3348.05/ounce; spot silver closed up 1.40% to $37.87/ounce. Crude oil rebounded as U.S. crude oil stocks fell more than expected last week, as investors awaited the next progress in Ukraine talks. WTI crude oil once rose to around $63, but failed to stand here and finally closed up 1.35% to $62.76 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 1.37% to $66.36 per barrel.
Analysis of major currency trends
Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at $98.24. The market's response to the minutes of the FOMC meeting was relatively flat, because the meeting was held before the release of the latest employment and inflation data. Additionally, investors are choosing to wait for Fed Chairman Powell to speak at Jackson Hall Economics Symposium before building large positions on the Fed’s possible policy outlook. Technically, since the US dollar index stays near resistance levels 98.00–98.20, the technical side remains unchanged. RSI is in a mild area if it appearsThe right catalyst has a lot of room to gain momentum.
Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends
1) Analysis of gold market trends
On Thursday, gold hovered around 3342.47. Powell has always maintained a cautious stance in policy, facing the potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump on tariffs on inflation. However, weak U.S. labor data and consumer inflation data prompted the market to digest the Fed's two rate cuts this year, with the first rate cut expected in September.
2) Analysis of crude oil market trends
On Thursday, crude oil trading around 62.76. Oil prices rose slightly on Monday. The previous US-Russian summit in Alaska has not made any progress as investors focus on the results of the meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky. In addition, this trading day should also pay attention to the initial value of the annualized total number of construction permits in the United States in July and the speech of Federal Reserve Director Bowman.
Forex market trading reminder on August 21, 2025
To be determined Jackson Hall Global Central Bank Annual Meeting
14:00 Switzerland July Trade Account
15:15 France's August Manufacturing PMI Initial Value
15:30 Germany's August Manufacturing PMI Initial Value
16:00 Eurozone's August Manufacturing PMI Initial Value
16:30 UK's August Manufacturing PMI Initial Value
16:30 UK's August Services PMI Initial Value
18:00 UK's August CBI Industrial Order Difference
20:30 US to August 16
20:30 US 8 Monthly Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
21:45 The initial value of S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August
21:45 The initial value of S&P Global Services PMI in August
22:00 The initial value of the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index in August
22:00 The total number of existing home sales in the United States in July
22:00 The monthly rate of the leading indicator of the United States in July
22:30 The week from the United States to August 15
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