Analysis of the core contents of the draft peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine conflict leaked by the United States

The draft contains a total of 28 core clauses, some of which appear to be acceptable to Ukraine, while others are vague and lack precision.

Ukraine's sovereignty will be "formally confirmed", and Russia, Ukraine and Europe will sign a "comprehensive and unreserved xmniubi.comprehensive non-aggression agreement" to provide Kyiv with a strong and credible "security guarantee" and require the launch of interim elections within 100 days. If relevant parties take military action against Ukraine again, the draft intends to launch a "coordinated and strong military response" to simultaneously restore restrictions and abrogate the agreement.

Although Ukraine is currently in a wartime state and there are objective obstacles to the actual implementation of the election, in theory, if the peace agreement is implemented, the election process may be advanced. However, at the level of security guarantees, the draft does not specify the guarantee provider and the specific strength of the guarantees - this is fundamentally different from the rigid xmniubi.commitment in NATO's fifth principle of "collective defense" that "an attack on any one member state is considered an attack on all member states." For Kyiv, it is clear that substantive guarantees beyond vague statements are needed if a deal is to be signed.

Core controversial clauses: territorial arrangements and adjustment of military strength

The most controversial proposals in the draft focus on two aspects: territorial arrangements related to Ukraine and adjustment of the size of the armed forces. "Ukrainian troops need to withdraw from parts of the Donetsk Oblast currently under their control. The evacuation zone will be designated as a neutral demilitarized buffer zone. Its relevant status will be recognized by the international xmniubi.community. Troops from relevant parties are not allowed to enter the demilitarized zone."

Involving Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and other Donetsk "fortress city clusters" - these areas are home to at least 250,000 Ukrainians - related arrangementsIt is impossible for the vast majority of Ukrainians to accept it.

It has taken more than a year for relevant parties to capture the town of Pokrovsk, and it is absolutely impossible for Ukraine to hand over such a strategic location without resistance.

"The size of the Ukrainian armed forces will be limited to 600,000 people." It is estimated that the active strength of the Ukrainian army in January 2024 will be approximately 880,000, a significant increase from the 250,000 in the early stages of the conflict in February 2022.

Although 600,000 people seems to be a negotiable size in peacetime, such restrictions on military strength essentially constitute a violation of Ukraine's sovereignty, and for relevant parties, this number may still be beyond their acceptable range.

Ukrainian representative Khristina Hayovishin made a clear position at the United Nations Security Council: "Our red line is clear and unshakable - no matter what the form, we will never recognize Ukrainian territory temporarily controlled by relevant parties as our territory. Ukraine will never accept any restrictions on its right to self-defense, the size of its armed forces and the Any restrictions on xmniubi.combat capabilities."

The draft further proposes that "Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be regarded as areas under the jurisdiction of relevant parties and will be recognized by the United States."

In other words, Ukraine and other countries do not need to recognize the relevant jurisdiction status from a legal perspective. This statement may provide space for Kyiv to accept it because it does not violate the core clause of the Ukrainian Constitution that "the territory is indivisible and inviolable."

In addition, in the southern Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts, the battle lines will remain frozen, and relevant parties need to withdraw from the control areas in other parts of Ukraine - namely, the northeastern Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts and the southern Nikolayev oblast.

Ukraine’s strategic positioning: arrangements related to EU accession and restrictions on alliance selection

The draft makes a major xmniubi.commitment to Ukraine’s long-term strategic positioning: “Ukraine agrees to clearly include a clause on non-membership of NATO in its constitution, and NATO needs to add special provisions on not accepting Ukraine in the future in its charter.”

“Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term priority access to the European market during the evaluation period of this issue.”

The feasibility of Ukraine joining NATO in the short term is extremely low, and relevant parties have softened their stance on Ukraine’s EU candidate status in recent months. This document seems to provide Kyiv with easier access to the EU market, but it ignores the independent decision-making wishes of the 27 EU countries.

Joining the EU and NATO are both goals clearly stated in the Ukrainian constitution. Another red line emphasized by Khajovitshin at the United Nations is: "We will never tolerate any infringement of national sovereignty, including the core right to independently choose alliance partners."

Other provisions of the draft include: NATO promises not to station troops in Ukraine, and Eurofighter aircraft are deployed in neighboring Poland; Kyiv needs to formally xmniubi.commit to becoming a "non-nuclear country." This arrangement obviously conflicts with the agreement supervision plan previously proposed by the Western "Coalition of the Willing" led by Britain and France.

Proposals for restoration of international status from relevant parties

DraftMany provisions of the case focus on lifting the international isolation of relevant parties, including "supporting relevant parties to reintegrate into the global economic system" and inviting them to return to the Group of Eight (G8).

Judging from the current situation, there is still significant uncertainty in the realization of this goal: the leaders of the relevant parties have been issued arrest warrants by the International Criminal Court. This party was expelled from the Group of Seven (G7) as early as 2014 after related incidents. Six years later, the Trump administration tried to promote its return but failed. If the United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and other countries had reservations before the full-scale conflict broke out, this possibility is undoubtedly lower now.

Frozen asset disposal plan: US-led reconstruction investment framework

The draft proposes that US$100 billion (equivalent to 87 billion euros, 76 billion pounds) of frozen assets from related parties will be invested in the "US-led Ukrainian reconstruction and investment project". The United States can obtain 50% of the investment income, and Europe needs an additional US$100 billion in reconstruction funds.

This model is in line with the US-Ukraine mining cooperation agreement earlier this year. It is essentially an economic consideration demanded by the United States for its intervention in the conflict, while the EU is faced with the situation of simply bearing huge costs. Judging from the scale of funds, this plan may not be able to cover actual needs: the total cost of Ukraine's reconstruction in early 2024 has been estimated at US$524 billion.

Currently, about 200 billion euros of related frozen assets are mainly managed by the Belgian bank Euroclear. The EU is advancing relevant plans and plans to use the funds to provide financial and military support to Kyiv. According to the draft, the remaining frozen assets will be handed over to the management of "relevant bilateral joint investment agencies" - although the relevant parties can recover some of the funds, the United States has once again obtained direct economic benefits from them.

Nature of the draft: Not a final plan, negotiations are still progressing

This is not a final plan. After xmniubi.completing crisis talks with the Uzbek and European negotiating delegations in Geneva, Switzerland on Sunday night, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said: "The agreement still needs to be further improved."

The top US diplomat added: "But what is clear is that xmniubi.compared with the start of today's talks and a week ago, the current negotiations have made substantial progress." He did not disclose the core points of disagreement.

Rubio also emphasized that any final plan must be approved by the relevant parties, who have not yet made a public statement on the relevant progress.

At the same time, many media revealed that Ukraine’s European allies, led by the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, have proposed alternative plans. But Rubio responded that he was "not aware" of any European counter-proposals against the US plan.

The United States initially planned to promote the implementation of the agreement according to a "radical timetable" and required Ukraine to xmniubi.complete the signing before November 27.

However, after Ukraine’s allies expressed clear concerns, Trump later stated that the plan was not a “final proposal” to Kyiv.

Rubio revealed that an agreement may be reached around Thanksgiving.

The draft and the core demands of relevant aspectsFit

It is reported that Kirill Dmitriev, the special envoy of relevant parties, had three days of closed-door consultations with Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkov. This detail triggered discussions on whether the agreement meets the demands of relevant parties.

A number of U.S. senators revealed that Rubio told them that the plan was not an original creation of the United States, but a reflection of the position of relevant parties and was leaked by representatives of that party.

This is in conflict with the White House’s public statement that “the plan was approved by President Trump and drawn up by US officials.” Rubio later revised his statement to say that the peace proposal was "led by the United States."

“This plan provides a strong framework basis for continued negotiations, taking into account the opinions of relevant parties and incorporating previous and current feedback from Ukraine.”

The response from relevant parties is currently cautious, but leaders of the party have stated that the plan can serve as a “basic framework” for a peaceful settlement. The relevant provisions on territorial arrangements (even if set as a demilitarized zone) are the core signal that the plan tilts towards the position of the relevant parties;

However, the freezing clause on the southern front may put pressure on this aspect - after all, the Kherson and Zaporozhye Oblasts have been included in their relevant legal documents. The "phased restrictions and case-by-case lifting" clause in the draft will most likely be regarded by the parties as too slow.

However, the proposal of "comprehensive amnesty for all parties to the conflict" may be recognized by this party, but it is bound to trigger strong opposition in Kiev and many European capitals.

Latest situation and summary:

The German Foreign Minister said that the talks between the United States and Ukraine in Geneva brought a "decisive success" to Europe.

John Wadpool said European-related issues, including an apparent ban on Ukraine joining Nato, had been dropped from the 28-point peace plan.

Russia’s attacks on Ukraine continued on Sunday as peace talks progressed in Geneva.

Ukraine is participating in this plan because it cannot afford to lose the support of the United States

Many analysts pointed out that the plan does not set weapons restrictions on the Ukrainian army and military industry. It only clarifies that "if Ukraine launches missiles at relevant major cities, the security agreement will automatically expire."

However, the draft does not restrict the subsequent development of Ukraine's independently developed long-range weapon systems, such as the "Flamingo" and "Long Neptune" series of missiles.

This aspect has always insisted that the peace plan needs to eliminate the "roots of conflict" it identifies. The core point is to prevent NATO's eastward expansion, and the draft has made a targeted response to this.

Some of the 28 articles in the draft indirectly echo the party’s claim on “the rights and interests related to the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine,” but do not explicitly support it.

One of the clauses is clear and neutral: "Russia and Ukraine agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and protect the legitimate rights of Ukraine and Russia in the media and education fields."

Another proposal that reflects neutrality is that Europe's largest nuclear power plantThe power output of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant (currently controlled by relevant parties) will be "equally distributed between Russia and Ukraine."

Trading related:

In terms of oil prices, if the draft promotes the easing of the situation between Russia and Ukraine and superimposes the global crude oil supply glut, the geo-risk premium will be reduced, which may suppress the rise of oil prices in the short term.

The draft has not yet been implemented, but oil prices have begun to react. Oil prices fell to near recent lows and fell below the support of 58.60.

In terms of gold prices, gold prices are sensitive to geopolitical tensions. If peace negotiations make substantial progress, the cooling of safe-haven demand may put pressure on gold prices. Recent trends show the suppression of gold prices by peace talks. Gold prices fell below the upward channel, indicating that weak oscillations may develop downwards.

November 27 is a key trading node. The current price has begun to reflect the positive results of the peace talks. If the peace talks are not facilitated on November 27, the recent decline in oil prices and gold prices may be corrected upward.

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